CONTENTS:

CHAPTER – 1

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Components of a time series

1.2.1 Secular trend or long term movement

1.2.2 Periodic changes

1.2.3 Random or irregular fluctuations

1.3 Mathematical models used for time series analysis

1.4 Analysis of time series

1.4.1 Uses of time series

1.5 Measurement of trend

1.5.1 Free-hand method or graphic method or trend by inspection

1.5.2 Method of semi-averages

1.5.3 Method of least squares

1.5.3.1 Fitting of a straight line

1.5.3.2 Fitting of a Second degree curve

1.5.3.3 Fitting of an exponential curve

1.5.4 Moving average methods

1.5.4.1 Limitations of the moving average method

1.5.4.2 Advantages of the moving average method

1.5.4.3 Drawbacks of the moving average method

1.5.4.4 Weighted moving averages

1.6 Measurement of seasonal fluctuations

1.6.1 Method of simple averages

1.6.2 Ratio to trend method